Breaking down Sam Alvey vs Dan Kelly

The 185lb at UFC Fight Night – Hunt vs. Miocic, sees Judoka Kelly vs the seriously hard hidding Sam Alvey.

Dan Kelly is a decent lower tier fighter. He doesn’t do anything really badly but doesn’t do anything really well either and at 37, that’s probably not going to change. Sam Alvey is not a particularly technical fighter but holy crap the guy hits hard.

Dan Kelly has had a mixed bag of performances in his official UFC career. He looked impressive vs Luke Zachrich, who he essentially bullied on the way to a finish. However, against Patrick Walsh in his last fight, he looked physically softer (a worry for someone with a history of injuries) and looked a lot more ponderous in terms of his fighting style.

Technique wise his striking is predominantly just throwing a one two. He has probably slightly below average power, slightly below average cardio and a slightly above average chin. When throwing punches his feet are about half a mile apart and he reaches forward and juts his head forwards as he does it. Not a lot of foot movement and basic head movement.

Alvey has a slightly wild, winging style. He doesn’t check leg kicks and he spent basically the entire Tom Watson fight with his mouthpiece hanging out his mouth.

So yeah, I’m picking Alvey, obviously 😀

The guy counters with massive power. He is flat out a finisher, both with counters and when putting together his own offense. He has a chin solid enough to withstand what Kelly has to offer without any issues. He knocked his last two opponents out in the first round. More importantly for me, he very nearly finished Tom Watson with strikes, who has NEVER been finished by strikes.

Kelly isn’t a dummy so he’s going to try fighting cautiously, so Alvey’s offensive mindset is important. Alvey’s takedown defense may be an issue but Kelly’s takedowns are not great, he’s slow and I think even if Kelly does get a takedown, Alvey could reverse position.

I would be fine placing a bet on Alvey now at -356, which I think is probably just about right as a line. However, I’m going to wait to see what the odds are on a TKO and bet on that.

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